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Albert, A, Hallowell, M R, Kleiner, B, Chen, A and Golparvar-Fard, M (2014) Enhancing Construction Hazard Recognition with High-Fidelity Augmented Virtuality. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).

Azambuja, M M, Ponticelli, S and O’Brien, W J (2014) Strategic procurement practices for the industrial supply chain. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07), 06014005.

Choudhry, R M, Aslam, M A, Hinze, J W and Arain, F M (2014) Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Bridge Construction in Pakistan: Establishing Risk Guidelines. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).

Doloi, H (2014) Rationalizing the Implementation of Web-Based Project Management Systems in Construction Projects Using PLS-SEM. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).

Edwards, D J and Holt, G D (2014) Antecedents of Health and Safety Issues Relating to Plant Trailer Wheels. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).

Jin, R, Han, S, Hyun, C and Kim, J (2014) Improving Accuracy of Early Stage Cost Estimation by Revising Categorical Variables in a Case-Based Reasoning Model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).

Kim, B and Kim, H (2014) Sensitivity of Earned Value Schedule Forecasting to S-Curve Patterns. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Scheduling; Forecasting; Kalman filters; Risk management; Earned value; Schedule forecasting; S-curve; Kalman filter; Schedule risk; Cost and schedule;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000856
  • Abstract:
    This paper examines sensitivity of the performance of seven project duration forecasting methods in the earned value management (EVM) literature to characteristic patterns of planned value and earned value S-curves. Specifically, this paper aims at identifying relative robustness and early warning capacity of six deterministic methods and one probabilistic method with respect to the nonlinearity of progress curves and the schedule delay patterns. The sensitivity analysis in this paper shows that forecast accuracy and early warning credibility of deterministic methods are very sensitive to the S-curve patterns, especially early in a project. The results also indicate that the probabilistic method (the Kalman filter earned value method) is the only method among the seven alternatives that is robust with respect to the progress curve nonlinearity and the schedule delay patterns. Consequently, this paper would positively contribute to the practice of project schedule control by providing practical guidance for and valuable insights into a sanity test on the forecasts and warning signals from the forecasting methods so that more informed decisions are made and unnecessary control actions triggered by false warning can be effectively prevented.

Nguyen, L D, Nguyen, T K N, Tran, D Q and Villiers, C (2014) Productivity in Daytime and Nighttime Construction of Urban Sewer Systems. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).

Sing, C P, Love, P E D, Fung, I W H and Edwards, D J (2014) Personality and Occupational Accidents: Bar Benders in Guangdong Province, Shenzhen, China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).

Su, X and Cai, H (2014) Life Cycle Approach to Construction Workspace Modeling and Planning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).

Tang, Y, Liu, R and Sun, Q (2014) Two-Stage Scheduling Model for Resource Leveling of Linear Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(07).